The first of the two primary sources for Atlantic hurricane season forecasts has been released, like Colorado State University is projecting a hyperactive season with about a third more hurricanes than usual for 2022.
Get ready for a 35% more active hurricane season
We’ve come to expect increasing weather activity with climate change, but it’s never good news to hear that we can expect about a third more hurricanes than usual in the Atlantic this year – but that’s the story.
Colorado State University released its annual predictions for the Atlantic hurricane season, forecasting we can see around 35% more hurricanes than average in 2022.
What’s an average hurricane season?
Before and up until 2021, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) defined an “average hurricane season” based on its data on a 20-year average from the years 1991 to 2010, which was as follows:
· 12 named storms
· 6 hurricanes
· 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater).
But as climate change has caused storms to form earlier – even before the official start of the season – and an increase in frequency and severity, the NOAA adjusted to an “average hurricane season” based on updated data on a 30-year average from the years 1991 to 2020. The new “updated” average for hurricane season is as follows:
· 14 named storms
· 7 hurricanes
· 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater).
The forecast: The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season
Even under the new NOAA definition of an average hurricane season, the forecast for 2022 is still 35% above-average, so it’s definitely a huge cause for concern, as well as a call for preparation.
According to the weather scientists at Colorado State University, CBS reported, for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season we can expect the following:
· 19 named storms
· 9 hurricanes
· 4 major hurricanes (category 3 or greater).
That equates to 5 more named storms than average and 2 additional hurricanes above the average, with one more major hurricane than average.
In addition, the average days hurricanes affect the weather, defined as “hurricane days,” is 27. For 2022, the forecast is 35 days. The average number of days named storms affect the weather, defined as “named storm days,” the average is 69.4. The forecast for 2022 is 90 days.
The past two hurricane seasons
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season produced 21 named storms, the most active on record after the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, which produced 30 named storms. In 2021, there were seven hurricanes, 4 of which were major. In 2020, there were 14 hurricanes, 7 of which were major, which is the record tied with 2005.
