The likelihood of severe fires in the West this fall has increased forty percent due to climate change, new computer models show, and with the fires come associated dangers such as debris flow and air pollution.
Climate change: 40% increase in extreme fall fire-weather
Fall has always been a dangerous time for fires in the West, particularly in October when temperatures remain high, foliage is dried out, and solid seasonal winds kick up.
But now, new computer models say that human-caused climate change has caused the likelihood of extreme fall fire weather to jump 40 percent in California and Western Oregon, according to a new study by Oregon State University, Science Daily reported.
The study used data from large fires that occurred in September, October, and November 2017 and 2018 and western Oregon’s Lionshead Fire in September 2020.
Scientists made models of atmospheric CO2 and aerosol concentrations to mid-19th century preindustrial levels. Then they made thousands of simulations using present-day levels.
They found that, without human influence, the likelihood of extreme fall fires would occur once every twenty years. However, there was a likelihood that increased by 40% under present-day conditions.
“The jump was mainly because of an increase in temperature and fuel aridity and not an increase in wind speeds,” said Linnea Hawkins. She led the Oregon State University College of Forestry study. The research was supported by the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and published in Geophysical Research Letters.
Worsening rain dangers in California due to wildfires: scientists working to better detect potential weather disasters, issue alerts sooner to save lives
Scientists are working on a better way of predicting brief but intense rainstorms in California that are leading to catastrophic flash floods, life-threatening debris flow, and devastating landslides, science daily reports.
As scientists are already projecting increases in wildfires in the West, post-fire debris flow events and flash floods threaten life in California.
Scientists are hoping to improve the prediction and tracking of storms to do what they refer to as “now-casting” the storms, addicting patterns, and hazards just a few hours in advance. The goal is to save more lives by being better able to pinpoint the areas likely to be hit with strong weather and issue evacuation alerts, and further minimize disasters.
Severe heat events in large wildfires happening more often, driving pollution to reverse gains of Clean Air Act
As human-driven climate change leads to more severe heat events, it’s prompting larger wildfires, which in turn is worsening our pollution across the western United States, a study has found, science daily reported.
On a single day in 2020, over 68% of the Western US, comprising roughly 43 million people, were affected by harmful levels of air pollution, the highest number seen in 20 years. Researchers say the increase in air pollution events is increasing in frequency, duration, and the geographic extent and have worsened to the point of reversing many gains accomplished by the Clean Air Act by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The Clean Air Act was established in 1963, another in 1970, then amended in 1977 in 1990, primarily to set new goals for air standards and attain the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).
